Hey there Maverick.
I’m aiming share what I’m thinking with some bulletin points that hopefully portray it in a concise manner. Trades and portfolio updates found at the end as usual.
Ben’s Bulletin:
An exhausting week, Crassus Investment consulting took up nearly all my time advising a family office in Singapore hence my decreased output on youtube etc. This has been helpful in revising my theses and adjusting my positions as the fund obviously requires a high level of confidence before deploying over $100 million.
Key takeaways:
My personal portfolios have become highly concentrated and so I am taking my own advice and rotating just a bit of my capital to spread the risk/seize on new reward opportunities.
Examples:
GAS/COAL:
Rotating profits from LNG plays into coal names which have come down in price. Gas and coal will basically mirror each other, with coal names being much simpler with cleaner balance sheet. NFE 0.00%↑ sold almost entirely with profits to be rotated into a basket of: $WHC BTU 0.00%↑ and potentially others.
OIL SERVICES:
Weightings in offshore will be adjusted over the next week or so, whilst I still love DO 0.00%↑ and TDW 0.00%↑ , The thesis is playing out and hence it makes more sense to have a barbell strategy in my mind, whereby the bulk weighting remains with Valaris having a clean balance sheet DO 0.00%↑ coming down from 6% to 1%ish and RIG 0.00%↑ position increasing to 2-3% given its recent sell off provides better risk/reward and if the sector keeps going they will likely outperform.
OIL PRODUCERS:
Contemplating reducing a little EC 0.00%↑ here. Yes, I still like it as a yield play, with a potential catalyst for a re-rate with Gustavo Petro likely to be ousted in Colombia’s next election. However, that’s not until 2026 and the company’s CAPEX has been flat for years. Whilst at current production they still have ~7 years of reserves for which the market prices 4, I’d like to spread some of my concentration risk across beaten up small/mid caps with large, low decline reserves. It’s likely I’ll add to my $JOY and MEG 0.00%↑ holdings in my personal accounts.
Other names to which I’ll be looking to add include: $BATS, $BABA, and SBSW 0.00%↑ which, whilst psychologically distressing to hold, has been bashed down in price. I will aim to get video analyses of these with the key thesis out on youtube asap.
Hopefully that helps with some of the questions I receive via discord this week.
Big News:
I’m (reluctantly) looking to get back into the Aussie property market.
I am fundamentally bearish and yet have conceded that the government here will do everything it can to continue the ponzi.
So why buy?
I need a base here as a hedge for the future. If I were to leave and do the digital nomad geo-arb thing for a few years and return to a high cost country it’ll be even worse in nominal terms.
I have business interests here which, upon reflection, it makes zero sense to abandon.
Instead of buying investment properties like I did in the past I am looking for a larger house on a big block in a regional city in and putting 50% down in cash. This will allow me to rent it at positive cash flow when I decide to travel for extended periods and provide a potential family home if that’s on the cards for my future. I don’t like it as a capital allocation for a large sum of cash, but I think I’ll have to suck it up and do it anyway.
This tweet I think sums it up nicely. Great X account to follow by the way.
Now, to business..
Performance
Squad members - scroll down for this week’s trade set up.
In true Maverick spirit, let's embrace adventure and see what happens.
See you inside the squad.
Benjamin.
Disclaimer: Options Mavericks is intended solely for documenting my personal journey with options trading for income and travel purposes. I am not a certified financial advisor, and none of the content provided should be construed as investment advice. It is essential to conduct your own thorough research and consult a registered financial service provider for appropriate guidance. I cannot guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information presented. Any actions taken based on the information shared in Options Mavericks are done at your own risk and discretion.
Keep reading with a 7-day free trial
Subscribe to The Maverick Life to keep reading this post and get 7 days of free access to the full post archives.